FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis and market news

[internationallove]

"RBNZ is unlikely to cut rates"(2012-06-13)

RBNZ is unlikely to cut rates



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to leave the official cash rate at 2.5% when it meets on Thursday, June 14. Despite the increased uncertainty in the euro zone and the slowdown of the global economic rebound, further rate cuts, according to the RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard, could cause a new credit boom.

The rate cut expectations declined sharply in recent weeks: after about 80% of probability a few weeks ago, these days only 20% of economists believe in the chance of a cut.

Specialists at JPMorgan expect a rate cut to happen in the next few months, because the CB needs more information on the global economy prospects to take the right decision.

Photo: FX service





Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here RBNZ is unlikely to cut rates // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"Westpac: trading AUD/NZD"(2012-06-13)

Westpac: trading AUD/NZD



Analysts at Westpac claim that one should wait until the pair AUD/NZD rises on the RBNZ rate-cut talk, and then sell the Australian dollar versus its New Zealand’s counterpart around 1.2870, targeting 1.2600 and stopping at 1.2960.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be meeting Wednesday night. Westpac believes that the central bank won’t lower the borrowing costs, so trade on the market’s expectations seems like a good opportunity.

According to Westpac, the RBA will cut rates a couple more times, but the RBNZ will remain on hold for the rest of 2012.

Chart. Daily AUD/NZD





Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here Westpac: trading AUD/NZD // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"Sumitomo: EUR/JPY may slide to record low "(2012-06-13)

Sumitomo: EUR/JPY may slide to record low



Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui claim that euro versus has completed a “head-and-shoulders” pattern Japanese yen at the end of May. According to the specialists, the first shoulder was formed on January 26 (102.20 yen), the head – on March 21 (111.43 yen) and the second shoulder – on May 22. The bank says EUR/JPY may drop to the new record minimum of 88.51 yen – this target is calculating by subtracting the distance between the neckline and the head from the neckline.

If we look at the daily Ichimoku Chart, we’ll see that the pair’s testing Kijun-sen (blue line) as well as the psychological resistance at 100 yen. Downward pressure on euro will strengthen if it fails at this point and slides below support of Tenkan-sen (red line) in the 98.30 zone.

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY





Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here Sumitomo: EUR/JPY may slide to record low // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD "(2012-06-13)

Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD



Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback has eased down from June maximum in the 1.0450 area versus its Canadian counterpart consolidating above 1.0200.

The specialists claim that if USD/CAD breached the support mentioned above, it will slide to 1.0124 (50% retracement of the May advance) and then to at 1.0105 (200-day MA).

However, the bank’s baseline scenario is positive for US currency: US dollar may recoil up from 1.0200 and travel upwards during the next few weeks. The targets on the upside above 1.0450 are 1.0523 (November maximum) and 1.0583 (200-week MA). .

Chart. Daily USD/CAD





Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

Friday, June 15: economy and currencies
(2012-06-15)

Friday, June 15: economy and currencies






Euro zone: The ECB President Mario Draghi speaks.
Canada: Manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health, are expected to go up by 2.2% in April after a 1.9% growth in March.
Great Britain: Britain’s trade deficit is expected to decline slightly to 8.5B.
U.S.: Empire State Manufacturing Index in June is to decline to 14.1 from the previous 17.1 print, while the industrial production in May is likely to increase by 0.1% vs. a 1.1% growth in April. Capacity utilization rate, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, is expected to remain at 79.2%. Economists forecast the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index to decline to 77.5 in June. In May the key indicator of the consumer spending reached its highest level in four years (79.3), what is a good sign for the U.S. economy.

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here Friday, June 15: economy and currencies // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"Сapital flows out of the euro area"(2012-06-15)

Сapital flows out of the euro area


According to analysts at Nomura Securities, in recent months there is an evident capital flight from the euro zone. If the trend continues, the single currency will trade much lower as it was a traditional emerging market currency crisis.

Specialists believe that on this matter the Europe’s debt crisis may be divided on three phases. In their view, during the first phase (April 2010-June 2011) investors sold assets from peripheral countries and tied up capital in the safe countries. In the second phase (July 2011-January 2012) the investors concerns on Spain and Italy started to grow. However, according to analysts, big amounts of money were still repatriated back to the euro zone.

These days the economy is in the third phase, when huge amounts of money are draining abroad. Meanwhile, Switzerland and Denmark are making efforts to retain control on their strong national currencies.

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here Сapital flows out of the euro area // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"AUD/USD: prospects for growth"(2012-06-15)

AUD/USD: prospects for growth




The AUD/USD cross managed to fix above the parity level on Thursday and continues extending its gains on Friday.

Specialists seem to be rather optimistic. Analysts at Westpac believe the pair will surge in case of a clear win of the pro-bailout New Democracy and Pasok parties on Greek elections on Sunday. According to strategists at RBS, the pair has good prospects for growth if it breaks the tough resistance, created by the Fibonacci levels and the 10- and 21-day MAs. Specialists at Commerzbank expect the cross to strengthen to $1.0146 in a short-term.

Support:

0.9397 (October 2011 minimum);
0.9667 (Nov. 2011 minimum);
0.9881 (Dec. 19 minimum).

Resistance:

1.0077 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the Oct. 2011 – Nov. 2012 range);
1.0146 (Jan. 2012 minimum)
1.0207 (50% Fibonacci retracement from the Oct. 2011 – Nov. 2012 range).

Chart. Daily AUD/USD






Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here AUD/USD: prospects for growth // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks"(2012-06-15)

Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks




The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday that the regulator is ready to take all the necessary measures to support the euro zone’s economy in conditions of increased uncertainty.

Draghi told that the ECB will continue providing liquidity to solvent banks. The EU monetary authorities, therefore, leave the door open for the further policy easing. Last week the ECB left its key interest rate at 1.0%, but a few members of the governing council voted for a rate cut. The ECB President also underlined that these days the EU officials are working out proposals on how to resolve the situation with minimal damage and will present the results on the EU summit on June 28-29.

Mario Draghi’s comments are especially important ahead of the Greek parliamentary elections, upcoming on Sunday. The vote is likely to determine the future of Greece in or out of the EU and of the single currency itself. Moreover, on Sunday the second round of the French parliamentary elections takes place.

Photo: The Telegraph






Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here Draghi: ECB ready to rescue banks // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"EUR is up on Greek election results"(2012-06-18)

EUR is up on Greek election results


Greek elections finally came and went. The results of the vote give hope that the nation’s policymakers will now be able to act efficiently to get the country out of the crisis.

As almost all votes are counted, the conservative New Democracy party will get 129 seats in the 300-seat parliament and its potential ally socialist Pasok party 33 seats. This is quite enough to ensure a workable majority and form a coalition government which will put all its efforts to keep Greece in the euro area and renegotiate the terms of the bailout. The latter will be vital as the austerity program is pushing the nation deeper in recession. The talks of on forming a government will likely start today.

The left forces opposing the bailout got in the minority with the total 121 seats, including 71 to be occupied by the Radical Left Coalition’s (Syriza) deputies.

Photo Nikolas Giakoumidis/AP

EUR/USD has another week of opening with a gap on the upside at $1.2693, above 38.2% retracement of the May decline.

Barclays Capital: “We continue to think the pressure on euro will be lower as weak growth will imply continued monetary policy easing by the ECB in the future. There has been some knee-jerk buying, which may have more to go. We would prefer to fade the rally than buying into it.”

Westpac: EUR/USD will rise to $1.2825/50 (May 21 maximum), but the potential for further advance isn’t high. The specialists note that Germany won’t easily agree to change the bailout conditions.

Standard Chartered: “The result has probably bought some time for Spain and Italy. But questions over the Spanish banking-sector bailout will persist, with clarification this week on how much will be requested.”

Photo Nikolas Giakoumidis/AP




Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here EUR is up on Greek election results // FBS Markets Inc.

[internationallove]

"G20 leaders meet in Mexico"(2012-06-15)

G20 leaders meet in Mexico




A two-day G20 summit started in Los Cabos, Mexico on Monday. It should come as no surprise that the European issues are on the top of the agenda: the stabilization of the global economy and the reinforcement of the financial system.

The pro-bailout choice of Greek voters has brought a sign of relief to the markets. However, the effect is not expected to be long-lasting: Spain and Italy moved into the limelight. The G-20 countries are expected to confirm the IMF's planned $430 billion firewall to help the IMF to protect the indebted countries. The IMF chief Christine Lagarde, however, may insist on extending the firewall straight to $500 billion.

The G20 leaders are also to give high priority to the problem of the global food price spikes and to work out mechanisms for their rapid stabilization.

Have a profitable trading day with FBS!
If you have any questions to our analysts, you’re welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Comment here G20 leaders meet in Mexico // FBS Markets Inc.