"NFP is unlikely to bring joy "(2012-06-01)
NFP is unlikely to bring joy
Today is one of the most exiting regular releases of the month – US Non-farm payrolls.
Previous (April): +115K.
Forecast (May): +151K.
Analysts at Standard Chartered think that the actual reading will come between previous and forecast level, at 130K. In their view, the lack of progress at US labor market reflects more the cautious attitude of business to future than indicates fears about a return to recession.
Analysts at BNP Paribas also think that NFP will show increase of only 110-140K that is below 150-200K level regarded by the Fed as acceptable. The specialists note that such figures will surely increase the odds of monetary easing in the US. However, BNP Paribas notes that this may happen only later in summer: it’s likely that the Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering in August will once again prove a defining moment in the US monetary policy.
Initial jobless claims have recovered after their seasonally adjusted spike higher in April, but they have failed to move below the levels seen in February-March. In addition, ADP employment report released yesterday was lower than expected showing that the number of employed people excluding the farming industry and government rose by 133K in May after increasing by 113K in April (below the forecast of +145K).
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