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U.S. Manufacturing PMI beats forecasts(2012-05-01)

U.S. Manufacturing PMI beats forecasts
Tuesday, May 1, 2012 - 14:15

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came out better than expected (54.8 vs. consensus-forecast 53.0 and 53.4 in March), pushing the greenback higher against its major counterparts. Positive PMI figures confirm the rebound of biggest economy in the world, lowering fears of the new policy easing required to stimulate the economy.

However, construction spending in March dell 0.1% vs. a 0.5% growth expected. Later today three FOMC members will deliver speeches; on Friday non-farm payroll figures will be next to offer investors the clues on the prospects of the U.S. economy.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Comment here U.S. Manufacturing PMI beats forecasts // FBS Markets Inc.

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Aspen Trading: recommendations on AUD/USD(2012-05-02)

Aspen Trading: recommendations on AUD/USD
Wednesday, May 2, 2012 - 08:00

The Australian dollar fell against the greenback after Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut its main cash rate by 50 bps to 3.75% yesterday.

Analysts at Aspen Trading Group are convinced that the downward pressure on the AUD/USD is set to continue. In their view, the Australia’s economy may require more rate cuts on the back of problems in the housing sector and low inflation figures. The U.S. dollar, on the contrary, is strong on yesterday’s positive Manufacturing PMI report (54.8 vs. consensus-forecast 53.0 and 53.4 in March) and seems to have bright prospects.

Strategists recommend entering the trade at $1.0330 with a stop at $1.0500 and a target of $1.0000.

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-05...trading-audusd

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Commerzbank: technical comments on USD/CHF(2012-05-02)

Commerzbank: technical comments on USD/CHF
Wednesday, May 2, 2012 - 08:45

Analysts at Commerzbank expect the USD/CHF to drop to the 0.9000 area, ahead of 0.8948 (200-day MA). In their view, the downside pressure on the cross may be eliminated only if it breaks through the key resistance, lying at 0.9191.

“Slightly longer term, we view the price action this year as a consolidation, but it is possible that this will extend to 0.8834/the 55 week ma prior to the resumption of the bull move”, analysts say.

Swiss PMI, released today, came out below expectations, pointing at the industry contraction (46.9 in April vs. consensus forecast 51.6 and 51.1 in March).

On Tuesday 08:45 GMT USD/CHF is trading at 0.9124.

Comment here Commerzbank: technical comments on USD/CHF // FBS Markets Inc.

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"AUD/USD drops further on RBA statement"(2012-05-04)

AUD/USD drops further on RBA statement
Friday, May 4, 2012 - 07:00





The Australian dollar keeps weakening against its major counterparts because of the investor’s bets on further rate cuts increased.

According to the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, released on Friday, the RBA sees average growth of 3% in 2012, down from a February estimate of 3.5%. Consumer prices will rise 2.5% in the year to December, from a previous prediction of 3%. Underlying inflation is predicted to be at 2.25% from a previous 2.7%, the central bank said.

U.S. non-farm payrolls data, eagerly awaited today (13:30 GMT), may influence on the cross strongly. Economists forecast the number of employed people to grow by 176K in April compared with 120K increase in March.

BMO Capital: If the NFP report comes stronger than expected (higher than 176K), go short on AUD/USD. Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the key interest rate this week and, given the problems of the Australia’s economy, may cut them further. On the contrary, positive NFP figures will make the Fed unlikely to loosen monetary policy.

AUD/USD declined 1.8% this week and is currently trading in the $1.0262 area. Resistance for the pair lies at 1.0300, 1.0395, 1.0420, 1.0450, 1.0475 (local maximum), while support – at 1.0245, 1.0225 (local minimum) and 1.0200.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Comment here AUD/USD drops further on RBA statement // FBS Markets Inc.

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"ECB press conference: highlights"(2012-05-04)

ECB press conference: highlights
Friday, May 4, 2012 - 08:30





The European Central Bank’s meeting, held on Thursday, was one of the most expected events of the week for the currency market.

The ECB left the benchmark rate at a record 1% low. Some market marticipants, however, expected the rate cuts after ECB President Mario Draghi last week said the bank was changing the growth and inflation outlook.

According to Draghi, the economic activity stabilized at low levels in Q1 2012. The inflation in 2012 is likely to exceed the target 2% level due to commodities price and indirect taxes growth. Downside risks are still strong, but the ECB forecasts a slow economic rebound in 2012.

ECB President has partially dispelled investor’s hopes on a third round of the LTROs: according to him, the positive effect of the second LTRO is yet to come. Mario Draghi said the operations supported the financial sector to avoid a credit crunch and strongly improved the funding conditions for the banks.

Nomura: The ECB will wait to see how its lending to banks will feed into the real economy. Economic conditions need to deteriorate significantly in the weeks ahead before the ECB will consider loosening monetary policy further at the June meeting.

Commerzbank: There are significant downside risks to the ECB’s growth outlook. Draghi indirectly hinted at next month’s ECB meeting when the bank will publish its new projections. Since the ECB may lower its growth forecasts, the rate-cut discussion will stay with us.

Berenberg: The pain threshold of the ECB for more policy action is high and has not been reached. Deteriorating survey data may be revisited at the next meeting, leaving the door for policy action at the June meeting open very slightly.

Photo: Getty images

Comment here AUD/USD drops further on RBA statement // FBS Markets Inc.

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"GBP/USD down throughout the week"(2012-05-04)

GBP/USD down throughout the week
Friday, May 4, 2012 - 10:30




The British pound declined 0.6% against the dollar this week after a five-day downward movement. The decline followed by two weeks of steady growth.

This week a bunch of negative data was released in Britain. The Halifax house price index in April dropped 2.4%, demonstrating the largest monthly decline since September 2010 (vs. forecasted 0.4% decline and a 2.2% growth in March). Manufacturing and services PMI declined in April, but still indicate the industry expansion (50.5 and 53.3 respectively), while construction PMI edged up to 55.8.

According to analysts at Charmer Charts, GBP/USD still remains under pressure with $1.6140 as a nearby objective.The upward correction is contained by $1.6220.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

Comment here GBP/USD down throughout the week // FBS Markets Inc.

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"JP Morgan: trading EUR/JPY"(2012-05-07)

JP Morgan: trading EUR/JPY
Monday, May 7, 2012 - 09:00

Analysts at J.P. Morgan Asset Management recommend selling EUR/JPY at current levels, setting a stop at 106.00 and a target of 102.50.

According to specialists, the Hollande’s victory was already priced in, while Greece will weigh on the euro. They underline that the market is unstable: any comments from Hollande after the election or something later in the week may influence the pair.

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

Comment here JP Morgan: trading EUR/JPY // FBS Markets Inc.

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"Analysts: outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-05-07)

Analysts: outlook for AUD/USD
Monday, May 7, 2012 - 10:30

The Australian dollar opened the week on a downside amid concern election results in France and Greece will deepen the euro zone’s crisis. However, throughout the day positive news from Australia improved the market sentiment.

FX Prime: There are major concerns about the euro. What’s common to both Greek and French voting is that people aren’t feeling good about austerity measures, which are the crux to a resolution of Europe’s debt problems.

Europe’s economic and political mayhem is may influence the economies, regarded as safe havens: policymakers may cut interest rates to weaken the currencies.

Societe Generale: In a weakening global environment, countries that can cut rates will do so and their currencies can fall. Europe is an economy with a currency that isn’t expensive, with not much scope or appetite for cuts.

Westpac Banking: We’ve got what may well prove to be the next wave of instability from Europe. There’s a clear voter rejection of austerity evident. We’d expect the Aussie and the kiwi to remain under pressure.

Australia’s retail sales grew by 0.9% in March after a revised 0.3% gain in February. Number of new building approvals increased by 7.4% after an 8.8% decline in February, pointing that the housing market improved in March.

Standard Chartered: The data was actually very strong, so it’s more like it’s putting a floor on the Aussie weakness that we’re seeing. It’s difficult to see the Aussie bouncing in this environment where risk sentiment is pretty weak.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in the 1.0180 area. Analysts at ANZ expect the Aussie to trade at $1.07 by December versus the greenback. According to Bloomberg forecast, the currency will end 2012 at $1.04.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Comment here Analysts: outlook for AUD/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

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"UBS: outlook for the US dollar"(2012-05-07)

UBS: outlook for the US dollar
Monday, May 7, 2012 - 13:00

Last week the US Dollar Index increased from 78.60 on Monday to 79.60 on Friday. According to analysts at UBS, the greenback was supported by the worrisome data coming from Europe and by the low likeliness of new round of QE in US. According to analysts, poor Friday’s NFP were offset by an improvement in other key indicators.


Specialists at UBS continue to believe in the greenback as they do not expect the US economy to slow down sufficiently to allow the Fed’s doves to push for additional asset purchases.

Chart. US Dollar Index
Source: Bloomberg

Comment here UBS: outlook for the US dollar // FBS Markets Inc.

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BBH: outlook for AUD/USD



The Aussie weakens against the greenback on Tusday after weak trade data report.

Trade deficit in March reached 1.59B vs.1.38B deficit forecasted and 0.75B deficit in February. The Australian Government, however, remains forecasting a return to surplus by 2012/13, as promised last year.

According to analysts, tight fiscal policy and eased monetary policy will continue pushing the AUD/USD pair down. Strong resistance for the pair lies at 1.0220 level. In a longer-term analysts expect the pair to fall to 0.9860.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Comment here BBH: outlook for AUD/USD // FBS Markets Inc.