thank you for the information, with the news that is important in view of news. I'm waiting for news on GBP / USD"April 23-27: events to watch"(2012-04-23)
April 23-27: events to watch
Monday, April 23, 2012 - 08:30
Tuesday, April 24:
• Japan: 20-year JGB auction
• Australia: The Q1 CPI is expected to rise by 0.8% vs. 0.0% in Q4. According to UBS analysts, the CPI data will be close enough to RBA’s forecasts to allow the central bank to trim rates by 25 bps from the current 4.25%.
• Canada: Canada’s Core Retail Sales in February are expected to increase by 0.8%. In January the report reflected a 0.5% decline. The BoC Governor Mark Carney in his speech may give a hint on a more hawkish monetary policy: the central bank could raise interest rates from a record 1% low sooner than expected.
• Great Britain: Public Sector Net Borrowing in March is forecasted to show£15.6 billion budget deficit vs. £12.9 billion deficit in February.
• U.S.: The current expectations are that the April Consumer Confidence index may reach 70.1. New Home Sales in March may increase by 321K vs. 313K in February. However, if the number of new home sales will fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market. U.S. 2-year notes auction is scheduled.
• Switzerland: The trade surplus in March is forecasted to decline to 1.99 billion Swiss francs vs. 2.68 billion surplus in February.
• Euro zone: Spanish 3- and 6-month T-bill auction; Italian bond (CTZ, BTPei) auction.
Wednesday, April 25:
• Great Britain: The Preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to grow by 0.1%. In the Q4 2011, the GDP contracted by 0.3%.
• U.S.: A bunch of important data is expected. The Federal Open Market Committee will hand down its monetary policy decision. Members have been slightly more positive on the economic outlook; however, it is still very much in the realm of “cautious optimism”. Any discussion about the prospect of more QE will be important. Core Durable Goods Orders (the de-facto gauge of business investment) are expected to increase by 0.6% in March vs. 1.8% rise in February. 5-year notes auction is scheduled.
• Euro zone: Allotment of ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. Following the April ECB rate decision in which the rate wasn’t changed at 1% Mario Draghi will speak and may refer to ECB’s plan to calm the markets including implementing LTRO 3 or resuming the SMP. According to UBS analysts, in order to lower the fears circling the euro zone debt situation, ECB's officials are speaking about the likeliness of new SMP. However, Germany is strongly against such a measure or another LTRO, so the ECB may use the strategy of cutting the interest rates. In general, the UBS analysts expect the ECB to remain more dovish than the Fed in 2012.
Thursday, April 26:
• Canada: The BoC Governor Mark Carney speaks.
• New Zealand: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on April, 26. Last month, the RNBZ Governor Alan Bollard forecasted the cash rate to remain unchanged at 2.50% for much of 2012. However, there may be a dovish slant to the statement. The deterioration of Australia's terms of trade is suggestive of New Zealand, especially given the recent sharp drop in milk prices.
• U.S.: Unemployment Claims are forecasted to increase by 378K this week vs. 386K the previous week. U.S. Pending Home Sales in March may increase by 1.4% vs. a 0.5% decline in February. 7-year note auction is scheduled.
• Euro zone: Italian T-bill auction.
• Japan: 2-year JGB auction.
Friday, April 27:
• Japan: The Bank of Japan is seen as likely to ease its policy further at a meeting on April 27 after coming under intense pressure to help support the still fragile economy. There are widespread expectations that it increases its asset purchase fund by 5 trillion yen to 24 trillion yen. The Overnight Call Rate is expected to remain at 0.10%. The annualized Retail Sales in March may increase by 11.5% vs. 3.4% in February.
• U.S.: The U.S. reports its preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP. Aided by government outlays (military spending and less drag from state and local governments) and strong capital spending, the GDP likely to expand by 2.6% vs. a 3.0% in Q4.
• Euro zone: Italian bond (BTP) auction is scheduled. The KOF Economic Barometer, the outlook of the Swiss economy, in April may grow to 0.26 vs. previous 0.08.
Comment here April 23-27: events to watch // FBS Markets Inc.